By Tom Woodruff · Oct 28, 2026
The Short Version
- The favorite
- #12 Diamond Necklace (3-1). Aidan O'Brien's 3-year-old filly, 3rd in the Arc last time, beaten a length and a half.
- The Arc runner-up
- #13 Bay City Roller (5-1). 2nd in the Arc, beaten a length and a quarter, and on the board in all six of his recent starts.
- The pace
- No confirmed front-runner. Minaret Station may be the one sent to the lead, and late kick should decide it.
- The Americans
- #3 Minaret Station won the Joe Hirsch. #6 Burnham Square has won twice over this course.
The Breeders' Cup Turf is the race right before the Classic on Saturday at Keeneland: a mile and a half on the grass for a $5,000,000 purse, with 14 runners. It's the most international race on the card. Ten of the 14 runners are trained in Europe or Japan, and two of them come straight out of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.
Races like this usually come down to two things: who handles the trip from a wide post in a big field, and who has the best turn of foot at the end of a mile and a half. There's no real speed in here, so the shape of the race is going to matter as much as the form. Here's how I see the main contenders.
Post positions & morning lineThe Field
| # | Horse | Jockey / Trainer | ML | Style |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethical DiamondAwtaad*Ire | D. McMonagleWilliam Mullins | 10-1 | Stalker |
| 2 | Benvenuto CelliniFrankel*GB | R. MooreAidan O'Brien | 6-1 | |
| 3 | Minaret StationInstilled Regard | J. OrtizWilliam Walden | 15-1 | Speed/stalker |
| 4 | Far BridgeEnglish Channel | J. VelazquezMiguel Clement | 20-1 | Speed/stalker |
| 5 | El CordobesFrankel*GB | W. BuickCharles Appleby | 15-1 | Stalker |
| 6 | Burnham SquareLiam's Map | J. Hernandez B JrIan Wilkes | 8-1 | Speed/stalker |
| 7 | HotazhellToo Darn Hot*GB | S. FoleyJessica Harrington | 15-1 | |
| 8 | Test ScoreLookin At Lucky | M. FrancoGraham Motion H | 30-1 | Stalker |
| 9 | Johanna WalshSea The Stars*Ire | M. BarzalonaJoseph O'Brien | 12-1 | |
| 10 | TiffanyFarhh*GB | L. MorrisMark Prescott Sir | 10-1 | Speed/stalker |
| 11 | SurvieChurchill*Ire | F. PratGeorge Boughey | 15-1 | Stalker |
| 12 | Diamond NecklaceSt Mark's Basilica*Fr | C. SoumillonAidan O'Brien | 3-1 | |
| 13 | Bay City RollerNew Bay*GB | O. MurphyGeorge Scott | 5-1 | |
| 14 | Deep MonsterDeep Impact*Jpn | T. MarquandYasutoshi Ikee | 30-1 |
#12 · 3-1 favoriteDiamond Necklace
Diamond Necklace is the favorite, and her record explains why. She has won six of her eight starts, including the Nassau at Goodwood in the summer, and she has been on the board in every one of her recent races. Last time out she ran 3rd in the Arc, beaten only a length and a half, which was a big step forward.
She's a 3-year-old filly trained by Aidan O'Brien, and C. Soumillon rides. The question is the stretch-out: before the Arc, her best races came at around a mile and a quarter. She handled the distance at Longchamp, and she'll need to do it again from post 12.
#13 · 5-1Bay City Roller
Bay City Roller was the best of these in the Arc, finishing 2nd and beaten a length and a quarter. He came back two weeks later at Ascot and ran 3rd over a shorter trip. He has been on the board in all six of his recent starts and has won five times and run 2nd eight times in 16 career races.
The software has him with the best recent figures in the field. He's trained by George Scott and ridden by O. Murphy. Like the favorite, he has to deal with the far outside post, and this will be his third hard race in about four weeks. Still, on form he's the horse to beat.
#3 · 15-1Minaret Station
Minaret Station is the American horse on the upswing. He has improved in each of his last three starts, ran 2nd in a Grade 1 at Saratoga in August, and then won the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont on October 1, beating Far Bridge and El Cordobes.
He's the one most likely to be on or near the lead, and that's a real advantage in a race with no confirmed speed. Top-flight connections with William Walden and J. Ortiz, and Walden does well with horses second off a layoff. At 15-1, he's the price I keep coming back to.
#10 · 10-1Tiffany
Tiffany is the most consistent horse in the field: on the board in all six of her recent starts, with nine wins and seven 2nds from 19 career races. She won the Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs in September at this mile-and-a-half trip, beating Ethical Diamond and Burnham Square, and she won at Hoppegarten before that.
She sits just off the pace, so she can work out a trip either way. Sir Mark Prescott trains her and L. Morris rides. She's a 6-year-old mare who is at home at this distance, and she's a fair price at 10-1.
#6 · 8-1Burnham Square
Burnham Square has won twice over this course and has been on the board in five of his last six starts, including a Grade 1 win in the Arlington Million at Canterbury in August. He ran a flat 7th in the Kentucky Turf Cup last time, and that's the race you have to forgive. Ian Wilkes has a strong record with graded stakes runners, and he has trained well for this. From the middle of the gate, he can sit just off the pace.
#2 · 6-1Benvenuto Cellini
Benvenuto Cellini is O'Brien's other runner, a 3-year-old colt by Frankel who won a big race at the Curragh in June and ran 3rd in the King George at Ascot in July. He finished 9th in the Arc but was beaten only about four lengths. He has an inside post, R. Moore, and plenty of class. He's the one who could improve the most for a good trip.
Race shapeHow the Race Sets Up
There's no confirmed front-runner in this field. Minaret Station may be the one sent to the front, with Tiffany, Far Bridge and Burnham Square sitting just behind.
At a mile and a half on the turf, late kick usually matters more than early position. But a soft early pace can also let a forward horse like Minaret Station or Tiffany steal it, especially if the closers get stuck wide on the turns from the outside posts.
Full picks & ticketsGet the Breeders' Cup Blueprint
This is one of the deepest races of the weekend. Diamond Necklace and Bay City Roller come in with the best form, but both have tough posts and hard races behind them. Minaret Station, Tiffany and Burnham Square all have a real chance at bigger prices, and the pace could hand one of them the race.
Who I'm on in the Turf, and how I'd bet it, is in the Breeders' Cup Betting Blueprint along with every other Breeders' Cup race.
Our full read on this race, with picks, contenders, pace maps and tickets for every race on the card, is in the Breeders' Cup Blueprint.
Get the Blueprint · $29.99Quick answersBreeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) FAQ
Who is the favorite in the 2026 Breeders' Cup Turf?
Diamond Necklace is the 3-1 morning-line favorite. Bay City Roller is second choice at 5-1, then Benvenuto Cellini at 6-1.
What time is the Breeders' Cup Turf?
The Turf is Race 11 at Keeneland on Saturday, October 31, with post time listed at 5:36 p.m. local time (Eastern).
How long is the Breeders' Cup Turf?
A mile and a half on the turf, with 14 runners and a $5,000,000 purse.
Where can I get your Breeders' Cup Turf picks?
My picks and betting strategy for the Turf and every Breeders' Cup race are in the Breeders' Cup Betting Blueprint.
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Updated Oct 28, 2026