Today’s Picks › Churchill Downs Picks › Sun, Oct 25
- Races
- 11
- Surfaces
- 8 Dirt · 3 Turf
- First post
- 1:00local time
- Feature · Race 9
- Rags To Riches Stakes
- Best Bet · Race 3
- 4Karajan Can use his gate speed to get first run in this sprint
- Value play · Race 8
- 3Bee Crazy Bet at 10-1 or higher
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Churchill Downs picks, race by race
- 5Top pickBroadway GirlOrtiz I Jr · Cox Brad H
Why Broadway Girl: First-time starter by Justify. Trainer Brad Cox has a strong record with route runners. Pedigree via Justify fits today's longer trip.
- 11Top pickNovo MestoArrieta F · Kenneally Eddie
Why Novo Mesto: Has run faster lately than anything else in here, and it isn't close. Finished 2nd in her last start, a neck behind the winner. By Practical Joke, and bred to handle the longer trip.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Goldbuttonthursday, Anywhere With You, Girl On a Tear, Play Along
- 4Top pickKarajanPrat F · Romans Dale
Why Karajan: Can use his gate speed to get first run in this sprint. The Dale Romans barn does well with sprinters. Comes back fresh after a 4-month break and has worked sharply since.
Trackside Edge: full top three with win estimates, pace notes and confidence for this race. Unlock
- 3Top pickFlaming VerdictGaffalione T · Maker Michael J
Why Flaming Verdict: Holds a big edge on recent speed over this group. Was only 6½ lengths from winning last time.
Value play11 Racheli Bet at 15-1 or higher
Rates as a live contender but projects as an overlooked price. Took a big step forward last time. Pedigree via Cairo Prince fits today's sprint.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Fiery Rufina, Your Choice, La Bella Maria
- 6Top pickIdeationOrtiz I Jr · Sisterson Jack
Why Ideation: Tops this field on recent speed. Finished 3rd in his last start, 4½ lengths behind the winner. Worked 7th of 38 on Oct 10.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Travelin, Castle Pines, American Veteran, Epic Sanguine
- 7Top pickC R SultanRomero J M · Gonzalez Lilia
Why C R Sultan: Last start was a clear jump forward for him. Ran 2nd last out, beaten a nose. By Maximus Mischief, and bred to handle the sprint.
- 7Top pickStand by MeArrieta F · Foster Eric
Why Stand by Me: Nobody else in the field has run as fast as her lately. Finished 2nd in her last start, 3 lengths behind the winner. Trainer Eric Foster has a strong record with sprinters.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Unstoppable, Peppermint Quill
- 8Top pickMedinahOrtiz J L · Casse Mark
Why Medinah: Clearly the fastest horse in the field on recent figures. Last start was a clear jump forward for her. Gets an easier spot than last time.
Value play3 Bee Crazy Bet at 10-1 or higher
Dismissed at 47-1 in her last start, but fits this field. Has improved in each of the last three starts. Steps down in class off a stakes.
- 7Top pickFirst LaughOrtiz I Jr · Cox Brad H
Why First Laugh: Won last time out in a maiden special weight. The Brad Cox barn does well with second-time starters. By Upstart, and bred to handle the longer trip.
- 3Top pickCard ManPrat F · Brown Chad C
Why Card Man: Coming off the best race of the current form cycle. Broke through with a win in his last start. The Chad Brown barn does well with horses coming back in 31 to 60 days.
- 5Top pickFools Rush InOrtiz I Jr · Cox Brad H
Why Fools Rush In: Brings the best recent figures into the race. Finished 3rd in his last start, 4 lengths behind the winner. Brad Cox gets good results with second-time starters.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Shacklebolt
More picks for Sunday, October 25
Churchill Downs picks archive
Churchill Downs picks FAQ
Are these Churchill Downs picks free?
Yes. Every Churchill Downs card gets a free top pick for every race, a value play with the minimum odds worth taking, and the Best Bet of the day. Trackside Edge members also get the top three in every race with win estimates, pace notes, confidence ratings and multi-race tickets.
When are Churchill Downs picks posted?
Our Churchill Downs picks go up before the card, once entries are out, usually a day or more ahead. This page always shows the current or next Churchill Downs card, and every past card stays in the archive below.
How are the Churchill Downs picks made?
Every horse is rated by the TracksideProfits handicapping model: speed figures, current form and the likely pace first, then trainer and jockey, distance and surface fit and pedigree, then class, layoffs and workouts.
What does "Bet at 6-1 or higher" mean on a value play?
It is the lowest price at which the value play is worth a bet based on our win estimate. If the horse is shorter than that at post time, the value is gone.
What if one of the picks scratches?
Move to the next pick in that race. Picks are made before scratches and late changes, so always check the final field before you bet.
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Updated Oct 28, 2026