Today’s Picks › Churchill Downs Picks › Wed, Oct 28
- Races
- 9
- Surfaces
- 6 Dirt · 3 Turf
- First post
- 1:00local time
- Top purse · Race 2
- OC 80k/N2X
- Best Bet · Race 6
- 4Lockdownyourtown Right there on speed with the top runners
- Value play · Race 8
- 11Twilight Delight Bet at 7-1 or higher
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Churchill Downs picks, race by race
- 2Top pickSleepingonfreedomEsquivel E · McPeek Kenneth G
Why Sleepingonfreedom: Trainer Kenneth McPeek has a strong record with turf horses switching to dirt. Returns from about 3 months off. Closer than it looks last out, beaten just 2 lengths in 5th.
Value play9 Discotheque Bet at 7-1 or higher
Dismissed at 15-1 in his last start, but fits this field. Finds a softer field today. Has run well at 7 furlongs before.
- 2Top pickChambersvilleOrtiz I Jr · McPeek Kenneth G
Why Chambersville: Took a big step forward last time. Only one horse in here has run faster lately. Steps down in class off a stakes.
- 5Top pickMacchiatoOrtiz J L · Asmussen Steven M
Why Macchiato: Tactical type who can stalk the leaders. Pedigree via Gun Runner fits today's longer trip.
- 9Top pickSpill the SugarOrtiz J L · LaRose Kinnon
Why Spill the Sugar: Brings the best recent figures into the race. Coming off the best race of the current form cycle. Finished 2nd in her last start, 3 lengths behind the winner.
- 8Top pickVaporettiOrtiz I Jr · Cox Brad H
Why Vaporetti: Saves his run for the stretch, a good fit for a turf route. Trainer Brad Cox has a strong record with horses coming back in 31 to 60 days. Has run well at a route of ground before.
- 4Top pickLockdownyourtownTorres C A · Diodoro Robertino
Why Lockdownyourtown: Right there on speed with the top runners. Finished 3rd in her last start, a length behind the winner. Finished in the top three in 5 of 6 recent races.
Full card: the top three with win estimates, pace notes and confidence for every race here and at every other track today. Race Day Pass $10
- 3Top pickAegisOrtiz I Jr · Sharp Joe
Why Aegis: Took a big step forward last time. Has the most early speed in a short dirt race. Has hit the board in 5 of her last 6 starts.
- 1Top pickInitializeOrtiz I Jr · Maker Michael J
Why Initialize: Has run the fastest numbers of anyone entered. Was only a neck from winning last time. Finds a softer field today.
Value play11 Twilight Delight Bet at 7-1 or higher
Rates as a live contender but projects as an overlooked price. Proven on turf with 2 wins. Posted the fastest of 56 works at 4 furlongs on Sep 26.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: The Minkster, B D Valeski, Cheval de Guerre
- 7Top pickNyadConcepcion A · Milligan Cameron
Why Nyad: Bullet work on Oct 21, best of 11 at the distance. Trainer Cameron Milligan has a strong record with dirt runners. Comes back fresh after a 7-month break and has worked sharply since.
Value play10 Diamondintherough Bet at 10-1 or higher
The kind of contender the betting tends to underrate. Three straight races of improvement. Takes the class drop into maiden claiming company.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Buckeye Favorite, Flaming Mama, Givemethebeat
More picks for Wednesday, October 28
Churchill Downs picks archive
Churchill Downs picks FAQ
Are these Churchill Downs picks free?
Yes. Every Churchill Downs card gets a free top pick for every race, a value play with the minimum odds worth taking, and the Best Bet of the day. Trackside Edge members also get the top three in every race with win estimates, pace notes, confidence ratings and multi-race tickets.
When are Churchill Downs picks posted?
Our Churchill Downs picks go up before the card, once entries are out, usually a day or more ahead. This page always shows the current or next Churchill Downs card, and every past card stays in the archive below.
How are the Churchill Downs picks made?
Every horse is rated by the TracksideProfits handicapping model: speed figures, current form and the likely pace first, then trainer and jockey, distance and surface fit and pedigree, then class, layoffs and workouts.
What does "Bet at 6-1 or higher" mean on a value play?
It is the lowest price at which the value play is worth a bet based on our win estimate. If the horse is shorter than that at post time, the value is gone.
What if one of the picks scratches?
Move to the next pick in that race. Picks are made before scratches and late changes, so always check the final field before you bet.
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Updated Oct 28, 2026