Today’s Picks › Churchill Downs Picks › Thu, Oct 29
- Races
- 10
- Surfaces
- 7 Dirt · 3 Turf
- First post
- 1:00local time
- Top purse · Race 9
- OC 80k/N2X
- Best Bet · Race 3
- 6Ruiva Clearly the fastest horse in the field on recent figures
- Value play · Race 2
- 3Up the Creek Bet at 7-2 or higher
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Churchill Downs picks, race by race
- 4Top pickQuentin BCorrales G · Romans Dale
Why Quentin B: Has run faster lately than anything else in here, and it isn't close. Trainer Dale Romans has a strong record with sprinters. By Promises Fulfilled, and bred to handle the sprint.
- 4Top pickMargoinabubblebathConcepcion A · Garcia Genaro
Why Margoinabubblebath: Coming off the best race of the current form cycle. Quickest from the gate in a dirt sprint that tends to favor speed. Finished 2nd in her last start, a head behind the winner.
Value play3 Up the Creek Bet at 7-2 or higher
Should be a bigger price than this horse's chances deserve. Owns the best recent speed figures in the field. Posted the fastest of 85 works at 4 furlongs on Oct 2.
- 6Top pickRuivaOrtiz I Jr · Ward Wesley A
Why Ruiva: Clearly the fastest horse in the field on recent figures. Rarely runs a bad one: top three in 3 of 4 lately. Steps down in class off a stakes.
Full card: the top three with win estimates, pace notes and confidence for every race here and at every other track today. Race Day Pass $10
- 2Top pickWatershed MomentBejarano R · Medina Robert
Why Watershed Moment: Just ran a sharply improved race. Comes in off a win. Has run well at 1 1/16 miles before.
- 7Top pickTexas DandelionOrtiz Y Jr · Sharp Joe
Why Texas Dandelion: Only one horse in here has run faster lately. Takes the class drop into maiden claiming company. Joe Sharp gets good results with dirt runners.
- 1Top pickStruck At MidnightOrtiz J L · Sharp Joe
Why Struck At Midnight: On the upswing, getting better every time out. Finished 3rd in her last start, a head behind the winner. Proven on turf with 2 wins.
- 3Top pickGuardianGaffalione T · Foster Eric
Why Guardian: Last start was a clear jump forward for him. Can use his gate speed to get first run in this sprint. Ran 2nd last out, beaten 3½ lengths.
Value play6 Trouble Ahead Bet at 8-1 or higher
Dismissed at 24-1 in his last start, but fits this field. Cameron Milligan gets good results with claimers. Has run well at 6 furlongs before.
- 3Top pickWe Be MischiefOrtiz I Jr · Asmussen Steven M
Why We Be Mischief: Finished 2nd in his last start, 2 lengths behind the winner. Bullet work on Oct 4, best of 22 at the distance. Pedigree via Into Mischief fits today's sprint.
- 7Top pickMobulaOrtiz J L · Sharp Joe
Why Mobula: Took a big step forward last time. Won last time out in a optional claimer. Finished in the top three in 6 of 6 recent races.
- 2Top pickElvis TonySaez L · Lynch Brian A
Why Elvis Tony: Has a slight edge on speed in a tightly matched field. Down in price, from $100,000 to $20,000. Trainer Brian Lynch has a strong record with second-time starters.
Value play4 Himothy Bet at 6-1 or higher
The kind of contender the betting tends to underrate. Down in price, from $55,000 to $20,000. Turned in a bullet on Oct 4.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Major Mack, Pick a Switch, Melody Man, Crazy Diamond
More picks for Thursday, October 29
Churchill Downs picks archive
Churchill Downs picks FAQ
Are these Churchill Downs picks free?
Yes. Every Churchill Downs card gets a free top pick for every race, a value play with the minimum odds worth taking, and the Best Bet of the day. Trackside Edge members also get the top three in every race with win estimates, pace notes, confidence ratings and multi-race tickets.
When are Churchill Downs picks posted?
Our Churchill Downs picks go up before the card, once entries are out, usually a day or more ahead. This page always shows the current or next Churchill Downs card, and every past card stays in the archive below.
How are the Churchill Downs picks made?
Every horse is rated by the TracksideProfits handicapping model: speed figures, current form and the likely pace first, then trainer and jockey, distance and surface fit and pedigree, then class, layoffs and workouts.
What does "Bet at 6-1 or higher" mean on a value play?
It is the lowest price at which the value play is worth a bet based on our win estimate. If the horse is shorter than that at post time, the value is gone.
What if one of the picks scratches?
Move to the next pick in that race. Picks are made before scratches and late changes, so always check the final field before you bet.
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Updated Oct 28, 2026