Mother Goose Stakes Picks: Can Bodacious Bay Handle All That Speed?

By Tom Woodruff · Nov 5, 2026

The Mother Goose closes out the stakes action at Belmont on Saturday: a Grade 2 for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, worth $300,000, with 11 in the gate. It's one of the last graded chances of the year for this crop, and it has a clear favorite on form.

That favorite is Bodacious Bay, who won the Cotillion at Parx in September. The question is the setup. She likes to be up front, and she isn't the only one. Here's how I see it.

Post positions & morning lineThe Field

#7 · 5-2Bodacious Bay

Bodacious Bay is the filly to beat, and it isn't especially close on figures. She's clearly the fastest horse in the field on recent races, she has improved in each of her last three starts, and she has never finished worse than 2nd: two wins and three seconds from five starts.

Her last race was the big one. She won the Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx on Sept. 19, beating Tap to Open and Iron Orchard, both back in here. Before that she was 2nd in the Monmouth Oaks, beaten 1½ lengths. Now she drops from a Grade 1 to a Grade 2, she has worked well for this, and M. Husbands keeps the mount for Saffie Joseph Jr.

#1 · 9-2Cognition

Cognition is the one that could make this interesting. She has only run twice, but she won her last start, a maiden special weight at Keeneland on Oct. 2 going seven furlongs, and Chad Brown and F. Prat are about as good as connections get.

This is a big ask: a jump from a maiden win into a graded stakes, and a stretch-out from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. But Brown does well with sprinters stretching out, and she's by Practical Joke, bred to handle the longer trip. From the rail, she can sit just behind the speed, and that may be the best spot in the race.

#10 · 8-1Intrepids Fantasy

Intrepids Fantasy is 3-for-3, all at Delaware, and she has improved every time. She won her maiden in May, then two optional claimers in July and September. She returns from about two months off, but she has trained sharply, and Gary Capuano does well bringing horses back from a layoff.

The jump in class is the obvious question. She has never run in a stakes, let alone a graded one. She's also one of the fillies who wants the lead, and from post 10 she'll have to use some speed to get there.

#3 · 5-1Tap to Open

Tap to Open is the price I like. Before the Cotillion she won three straight: her maiden at Churchill, an allowance at Ellis Park and a stakes at Parx in August. She was 4th in the Cotillion, beaten 8½ lengths by Bodacious Bay, and steps down from that Grade 1 here.

Brad Cox does well with horses coming back in a month or two, and M. Franco rides. She's a forward filly too, which is the knock, but she has already won at this distance. I'd want a real price on her, well above her morning line.

#6 · 6-1Ati Girl

Ati Girl has the second-best recent figures in the field. She broke her maiden at Saratoga in July, then ran 5th in the Grade 1 Alabama, beaten about 4½ lengths. She has been off about three months but has worked sharply, and William Mott and J. Velazquez make her dangerous if she runs back to that Alabama.

#2 · 8-1Answered Prayers

Answered Prayers is the steady one: on the board in five of her last six, improving in each of her last three, and 2nd last time at Churchill. She's Mott's other runner, with J. Alvarado, and she has run well at this distance. She's a good fit for the bottom of exactas and trifectas.

Race shapeHow the Race Sets Up

There's plenty of early speed here. Bodacious Bay, Intrepids Fantasy and Iron Orchard all like to be on or near the lead, and Tap to Open isn't far behind them. At 1 1/16 miles, that kind of pressure usually takes a toll.

That sets up for a filly sitting just off it, like Cognition from the rail, and for Ati Girl and Answered Prayers a little farther back. Bodacious Bay has the class to deal with it, but she may have to work harder than her last race.

The bottom lineMy Picks

Bodacious Bay is the most accomplished filly in the race and my top pick. She has the fastest figures and a Grade 1 win, and she's dropping in class. The pace is the only real worry.

I'd use Bodacious Bay on top with Cognition and Intrepids Fantasy underneath, and take a shot with Tap to Open only if she drifts to a big price.

Quick answersMother Goose Stakes (Grade 2) FAQ

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