Maple Leaf Stakes Picks: Can Lupa Get the Mile and a Quarter?

By Tom Woodruff · Nov 5, 2026

The Maple Leaf is the feature at Woodbine on Saturday: a Grade 3 for fillies and mares at 1 1/4 miles on the synthetic, worth $175,000, with seven in the field. Most of these mares have won over this track, and several have met each other already this year.

Lupa is the even-money favorite, and on figures she deserves it. The question is whether she gets the extra distance. Here's how I see it.

Post positions & morning lineThe Field

#4 · even moneyLupa

Lupa is clearly the fastest filly in the field on recent figures, and she took a big step forward last time. She won the Grade 3 Ontario Matron at Woodbine on Sept. 12, and before that she was 2nd in the Trillium, beaten a nose, and 3rd in the Grade 2 Canadian on the turf.

She has won four times over this track and twice on the synthetic, and Josie Carroll and F. Aebly have her in top form. The one question is the distance. Her longest race so far was the Trillium at 1 1/8 miles, and this is a furlong farther. She's also the main speed, so everyone will be chasing her.

#5 · 4-1Dixie Law

Dixie Law is the danger, and she has already won at a mile and a quarter. She did it in a stakes on the Woodbine turf in September. Last time she ran 2nd in a stakes on the synthetic, beaten a neck, and she has the second-best recent figures in the field.

She has five wins over this track and has hit the board in five of her last six. She's a 3-year-old taking on older fillies and mares, but she has already run against top company here, including the King's Plate. Dale Desruisseaux trains, P. Moran rides, and she has trained well for this.

#2 · 7-2Sultana

Sultana is the class of the field on paper. She won the Grade 3 Orchid at Gulfstream in March at 1½ miles, and she has been running in graded stakes ever since, most recently 6th in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor. She steps down in class here and comes back to the synthetic, where she has two wins.

Her recent races have been on the turf, and she hasn't won since the spring, which keeps me from putting her on top. But she has three wins over this track, Kevin Attard is a strong barn, and she has worked well. She belongs in every exotic.

#7 · 8-1Hurricane Clair

Hurricane Clair has six wins over this track, the most in the field, and she has improved in each of her last three starts. Last time she ran 3rd in a stakes on the synthetic, beaten a length. At 8-1, she's the price that makes sense to use underneath.

#1 · 10-1Fortyfiveseventy

Fortyfiveseventy was 3rd in the Trillium, finishing right behind Lupa and beaten less than a length. She has three wins over this track and has worked well. She doesn't win often, with three wins from 28 starts, but she has hit the board plenty.

Race shapeHow the Race Sets Up

Lupa shows the most early speed, but others can keep it honest. In a seven-horse field at a mile and a quarter, she may be able to set her own fractions if nobody goes with her.

If she gets that kind of trip, she's very hard to beat. If someone pressures her early, the distance becomes a real question, and that's where Dixie Law and Sultana come in.

The bottom lineMy Picks

Lupa is the most likely winner and my top pick. She's the fastest filly in the race and in top form. At even money, though, she isn't much of a bet on her own.

I'd use Lupa on top of exactas and trifectas with Dixie Law and Sultana underneath, and include Hurricane Clair for a bigger payoff.

Quick answersMaple Leaf Stakes (Grade 3) FAQ

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