Today’s Picks › Churchill Downs Picks › Sun, Nov 1
- Races
- 9
- Surfaces
- 6 Dirt · 3 Turf
- First post
- 1:00local time
- Top purse · Race 8
- Alw 127000N1X
- Best Bet · Race 7
- 6Gardiner Clearly the fastest horse in the field on recent figures
- Value play · Race 2
- 1Miss Clarke Bet at 6-1 or higher
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Churchill Downs picks, race by race
- 2Top pickSoap NoteGutierrez Mario · Stewart Dallas
Why Soap Note: Has run faster lately than anything else in here, and it isn't close. Quickest from the gate in a dirt sprint that tends to favor speed. Drops from maiden special weight into a maiden claimer.
- 2Top pickAshes and DiamondsAsmussen K J · Asmussen Steven M
Why Ashes and Diamonds: Likes Churchill Downs, with 2 wins here.
Value play1 Miss Clarke Bet at 6-1 or higher
Dismissed at 14-1 in her last start, but fits this field. Trainer Michael Evans II has a strong record with claimers. Proven at this kind of distance.
- 8Top pickLove a WarriorSaez L · Asmussen Steven M
Why Love a Warrior: Nobody else in the field has run as fast as him lately. On the upswing, getting better every time out. Ran 2nd last out, beaten a nose.
Value play5 Captivate Bet at 7-1 or higher
Should be a bigger price than this horse's chances deserve. Ran 2nd last out, beaten 2 lengths. Posted the fastest of 10 works at 5 furlongs on Oct 22.
- 5Top pickWindsockTorres C A · Brisset Rodolphe
Why Windsock: Coming off the best race of the current form cycle. Was only 2 lengths from winning last time. Comes back fresh after a 2-month break.
- 6Top pickCulpritGaffalione T · Jacobson David
Why Culprit: Has run well at 1 1/16 miles before.
- 11Top pickThe LookGaffalione T · Walsh Brendan P
Why The Look: Has run the fastest numbers of anyone entered. Ran 3rd last out, beaten 2 lengths. By Volatile, and bred to handle the longer trip.
Value play1 Indomiknow Bet at 12-1 or higher
The kind of contender the betting tends to underrate. Lauren Robson gets good results with turf runners. Worked 3rd of 38 on Oct 1.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Marble Arch, Take the Helm, Gimme Some Lovin, Ghosts Lil Secret
- 6Top pickGardinerOrtiz Y Jr · Sharp Joe
Why Gardiner: Clearly the fastest horse in the field on recent figures. Last start was a clear jump forward for him. Down in price, from $20,000 to $12,500.
Full card: the top three with win estimates, pace notes and confidence for every race here and at every other track today. Race Day Pass $10
- 7Top pickKaykayGaffalione T · Baffert Bob
Why Kaykay: Trending the right way, with each of her last three better than the one before. Comes in off a win. Has the most early speed in a short dirt race.
- 3Top pickHazy HorizonGaffalione T · Ward Wesley A
Why Hazy Horizon: Owns the best recent speed figures in the field. Just ran a sharply improved race. Was only a nose from winning last time.
More picks for Sunday, November 1
Churchill Downs picks archive
Churchill Downs picks FAQ
Are these Churchill Downs picks free?
Yes. Every Churchill Downs card gets a free top pick for every race, a value play with the minimum odds worth taking, and the Best Bet of the day. Trackside Edge members also get the top three in every race with win estimates, pace notes, confidence ratings and multi-race tickets.
When are Churchill Downs picks posted?
Our Churchill Downs picks go up before the card, once entries are out, usually a day or more ahead. This page always shows the current or next Churchill Downs card, and every past card stays in the archive below.
How are the Churchill Downs picks made?
Every horse is rated by the TracksideProfits handicapping model: speed figures, current form and the likely pace first, then trainer and jockey, distance and surface fit and pedigree, then class, layoffs and workouts.
What does "Bet at 6-1 or higher" mean on a value play?
It is the lowest price at which the value play is worth a bet based on our win estimate. If the horse is shorter than that at post time, the value is gone.
What if one of the picks scratches?
Move to the next pick in that race. Picks are made before scratches and late changes, so always check the final field before you bet.
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Updated Nov 01, 2026