Today’s Picks › Churchill Downs Picks › Wed, Nov 4
- Races
- 10
- Surfaces
- 9 Dirt · 1 Turf
- First post
- 1:00local time
- Top purse · Race 9
- OC 80k/N2X
- Best Bet · Race 8
- 3Freaks Go Has run faster lately than anything else in here, and it isn't close
- Value play · Race 1
- 1Detention Bet at 9-2 or higher
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Churchill Downs picks, race by race
- 5Top pickBraums RunOrtiz J L · Casse Mark
Why Braums Run: Three straight races of improvement. Finished 2nd in his last start, 1 lengths behind the winner. Has hit the board in 3 of his last 4 starts.
Value play1 Detention Bet at 9-2 or higher
Rates as a live contender but projects as an overlooked price. By Maximus Mischief, and bred to handle the sprint. Training well, with a sharp move on Oct 18.
- 5Top pickTheaCedillo A · Schultz Lindsay
Why Thea: Owns the best recent speed figures in the field. Was only 2½ lengths from winning last time. Has hit the board in 5 of her last 6 starts.
- 1Top pickSouthern WhisperOrtiz J L · Sharp Joe
Why Southern Whisper: Last start was a clear jump forward for him. The Joe Sharp barn does well with dirt runners.
- 1Top pickI'm a Little CrazyArrieta F · D'Amato Philip
Why I'm a Little Crazy: Has the most early speed in a short dirt race. Down in price, from $150,000 to $50,000. Trainer Philip D'Amato has a strong record with routers cutting back.
- 12Top pickJackie's PlayerOrtiz Y Jr · Cox Brad H
Why Jackie's Player: Took a big step forward last time. Narrowly the fastest on recent figures. Can use her gate speed to get first run in this sprint.
Value play4 Measurement Bet at 12-1 or higher
The public let her go at 10-1 last out, and the ratings say that was a mistake. Has improved in each of the last three starts. Gets a softer spot after running against maiden special weight company.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Fiery Rufina, J Z's Not Again, Gold N Krazy
- 4Top pickGun for GloryAsmussen K J · Asmussen Steven M
Why Gun for Glory: Took a big step forward last time. Ran 2nd last out, beaten 4 lengths. By Gun Runner, and bred to handle the longer trip.
- 3Top pickComprehensiveCurtis B · Lynch Brian A
Why Comprehensive: Was only 2½ lengths from winning last time. Rarely runs a bad one: top three in 5 of 6 lately. The Brian Lynch barn does well with horses coming back in 31 to 60 days.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Travertine, Safety Off, Liberty Valance, Wolf Dakota, Veblen, Still Sober
- 3Top pickFreaks GoGaffalione T · Crichton Rohan G
Why Freaks Go: Has run faster lately than anything else in here, and it isn't close. Quickest from the gate in a dirt sprint that tends to favor speed. Finished 2nd in her last start, 4 lengths behind the winner.
Full card: the top three with win estimates, pace notes and confidence for every race here and at every other track. It covers the day you buy it and the next, so grab it on race day. Race Day Pass $10
- 8Top pickIle de La CiteGaffalione T · Walsh Brendan P
Why Ile de La Cite: On the upswing, getting better every time out. Won last time out in an allowance. The Brendan Walsh barn does well with last-out winners.
Value play2 Athaliah Bet at 12-1 or higher
Dismissed at 8-1 in her last start, but fits this field. Coming off the best race of the current form cycle. Steps down in class off a optional claimer.
- 4Top pickBelzoniAlvarado J · Mott William I
Why Belzoni: Clearly the fastest horse in the field on recent figures. Coming off the best race of the current form cycle. Ran 2nd last out, beaten a nose.
More picks for Wednesday, November 4
Churchill Downs picks archive
Churchill Downs picks FAQ
Are these Churchill Downs picks free?
Yes. Every Churchill Downs card gets a free top pick for every race, a value play with the minimum odds worth taking, and the Best Bet of the day. Trackside Edge members also get the top three in every race with win estimates, pace notes, confidence ratings and multi-race tickets.
When are Churchill Downs picks posted?
Our Churchill Downs picks go up before the card, once entries are out, usually a day or more ahead. This page always shows the current or next Churchill Downs card, and every past card stays in the archive below.
How are the Churchill Downs picks made?
Every horse is rated by the TracksideProfits handicapping model: speed figures, current form and the likely pace first, then trainer and jockey, distance and surface fit and pedigree, then class, layoffs and workouts.
What does "Bet at 6-1 or higher" mean on a value play?
It is the lowest price at which the value play is worth a bet based on our win estimate. If the horse is shorter than that at post time, the value is gone.
What if one of the picks scratches?
Move to the next pick in that race. Picks are made before scratches and late changes, so always check the final field before you bet.
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Updated Nov 01, 2026