Today’s Picks › Churchill Downs Picks › Thu, Nov 5
- Races
- 10
- Surfaces
- 8 Dirt · 2 Turf
- First post
- 1:00local time
- Top purse · Race 4
- Alw 141000C
- Best Bet · Race 9
- 1Zimmer Clearly the fastest horse in the field on recent figures
- Value play · Race 7
- 8Wild Recruit Bet at 8-1 or higher
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Churchill Downs picks, race by race
- 2Top pickFlashy AviatorGaffalione T · Crichton Rohan G
Why Flashy Aviator: Quickest from the gate in a dirt sprint that tends to favor speed. Was only 7 lengths from winning last time. Only one horse in here has run faster lately.
- 2Top pickCity of RomeOrtiz J L · Kenneally Eddie
Why City of Rome: Has the most early speed in a short dirt race. Drops from maiden special weight into a maiden claimer. Posted the fastest of 7 works at 3 furlongs on Oct 8.
- 8Top pickSmotedPrat F · Cox Brad H
Why Smoted: Holds a big edge on recent speed over this group. Won last time out in a maiden claimer. Trainer Brad Cox has a strong record with second-time starters.
- 7Top pickThrockmortonOrtiz J L · Summers Chad
Why Throckmorton: Took a big step forward last time. Ran 2nd last out, beaten a head. Has hit the board in 5 of his last 6 starts.
- 2Top pickHillbilly DaydreamAntongrgi III W · Vance Thomas D
Why Hillbilly Daydream: Nobody else in the field has run as fast as him lately. Has improved in each of the last three starts. Comes in off a win at 10-1.
- 10Top pickRaising KaneOrtiz Y Jr · Sharp Joe
Why Raising Kane: Three straight races of improvement. Finished 3rd in his last start, 3½ lengths behind the winner. Has won 2 times over this track.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Pappy's Revenge, He Gots to Go
- 1Top pickBoonesboroBeschizza A · Lynch Brian A
Why Boonesboro: Trending the right way, with each of his last three better than the one before. Comes in off a win. Brian Lynch gets good results with last-out winners.
Value play8 Wild Recruit Bet at 8-1 or higher
Should be a bigger price than this horse's chances deserve. Quickest from the gate in a dirt sprint that tends to favor speed. Posted the fastest of 24 works at 3 furlongs on Oct 30.
- 9Top pickWon'tcatchmecryanTorres J A · David Carlos A
Why Won'tcatchmecryan: Second-best recent figures in the field. Was only a head from winning last time. Carlos David gets good results with dirt horses switching to turf.
Value play2 Special Liberty Bet at 15-1 or higher
Rates as a live contender but projects as an overlooked price. A Midshipman with the pedigree to handle the grass. Sits just off the pace, so she can work out a trip either way.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Aria Thunder, Encrypting, Avalon Beach, Discharged, R Last Laugh, Charianna
- 1Top pickZimmerGaffalione T · Stidham Michael
Why Zimmer: Clearly the fastest horse in the field on recent figures. Won last time out in a maiden special weight. Trainer Michael Stidham has a strong record with sprinters stretching out.
Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Sixtyseven Mustang, Commentate, Blue Forty Two, Laughnowcrylater
Full card: the top three with win estimates, pace notes and confidence for every race here and at every other track. It covers the day you buy it and the next, so grab it on race day. Race Day Pass $10
- 8Top pickUppitySaez L · Cox Brad H
Why Uppity: Right there on speed with the top runners. Was only 1½ lengths from winning last time. Turned in a bullet on Oct 23.
Value play7 E Tee Aye Bet at 15-1 or higher
The kind of contender the betting tends to underrate. Paul McGee gets good results with dirt runners. By Flightline, and bred to handle the longer trip.
More picks for Thursday, November 5
Churchill Downs picks archive
Churchill Downs picks FAQ
Are these Churchill Downs picks free?
Yes. Every Churchill Downs card gets a free top pick for every race, a value play with the minimum odds worth taking, and the Best Bet of the day. Trackside Edge members also get the top three in every race with win estimates, pace notes, confidence ratings and multi-race tickets.
When are Churchill Downs picks posted?
Our Churchill Downs picks go up before the card, once entries are out, usually a day or more ahead. This page always shows the current or next Churchill Downs card, and every past card stays in the archive below.
How are the Churchill Downs picks made?
Every horse is rated by the TracksideProfits handicapping model: speed figures, current form and the likely pace first, then trainer and jockey, distance and surface fit and pedigree, then class, layoffs and workouts.
What does "Bet at 6-1 or higher" mean on a value play?
It is the lowest price at which the value play is worth a bet based on our win estimate. If the horse is shorter than that at post time, the value is gone.
What if one of the picks scratches?
Move to the next pick in that race. Picks are made before scratches and late changes, so always check the final field before you bet.
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Updated Nov 01, 2026