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Keeneland Picks Fri, Oct 16

Free picks for all 10 races at Keeneland on Friday, October 16, 2026, generated by the TracksideProfits handicapping software.

Today’s Picks › Keeneland Picks › Fri, Oct 16

Races
10
Surfaces
7 Dirt · 3 Turf
First post
1:00local time
Top purse · Race 8
Alw 120000N1X
Best Bet · Race 3
4Nessy
66% win est.
Value play · Race 4
8Mizzou
15% win est.

Race-by-race picks

Race1 Clm 20000N2L6 furlongs · Dirt · Post 1:00 · 10 starters Low
  1. 8 Getting After ItArrieta F · Puhich Michael 18%win est.
  2. 7 BeauxbatonsEsquivel E · Garcia Genaro 18%win est.
  3. 10 Muffin MusicJimenez A · Ward Wesley A 17%win est.

Why Getting After It: Figures moving forward. Figures have risen three straight races.

Pace: Plenty of early speed with Sang, Nightmare Fuel and Beauxbatons, so the pace should be contested. That sets up for a closer such as Muffin Music.

Race2 Md 1000001 1/16 miles · Dirt · Post 1:32 · 7 starters Medium
  1. 5 Flaming RainbowOrtiz J L · McPeek Kenneth G 35%win est.
  2. 3 ThrottleOrtiz I Jr · Cox Brad H 33%win est.
  3. 4 Summit RidgeMorales E · Sweezey J Kent 10%win est.

Why Flaming Rainbow: Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Pedigree suits the distance. Returns from a layoff.

Value play4 Summit Ridge 10% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming.

Pace: No confirmed front-runner here, so Throttle may be the one sent to the front.

Race3 Clm 40000N2L6 ½ furlongs · Dirt · Post 2:04 · 9 starters Best BetHigh
  1. 4 NessyCorrales G · Rivera Nestor R 66%win est.
  2. 1 Speech and DramaOrtiz J L · Tomlinson Michael A 9%win est.
  3. 2 RebelkaLara V · Chapman James K 6%win est.

Why Nessy: Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Figures have risen three straight races.

Pace: Chiqueada and Nessy figure to go after the lead together. A stalker like Speech and Drama could be the one to benefit.

Race4 Md 500006 furlongs · Dirt · Post 2:36 · 11 starters Medium
  1. 5 DontworryboutnothnGaffalione T · Jacobson David 54%win est.
  2. 8 MizzouHernandez B J Jr · Salas Marcelino 15%win est.
  3. 6 Lifes RewardBejarano R · Hartman Chris A 6%win est.

Why Dontworryboutnothn: Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Figures have risen three straight races.

Value play8 Mizzou 15% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Among the fastest on recent figures. Figures moving forward.

Pace: Southern Whisper shows the most early speed, but others can keep it honest. With 3 first-time starters or runners without recent figures, treat this race with extra caution.

Race5 Md Sp Wt 110k1 1/16 miles · Turf · Post 3:08 · 10 starters Low
  1. 6 Moviestar HandsomeOrtiz J L · Ward Wesley A 23%win est.
  2. 5 New FundSheehy D · Molloy Thomas 15%win est.
  3. 10 KelzEsquivel E · McPeek Kenneth G 15%win est.

Why Moviestar Handsome: Pedigree suits the distance.

Value play5 New Fund 15% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Figures moving forward. Pedigree suits the distance.

Pace: No confirmed front-runner here, so Moviestar Handsome may be the one sent to the front. On turf at this distance, late kick usually matters more than early position. With 3 first-time starters or runners without recent figures, treat this race with extra caution.

Race6 Alw 12500s6 ½ furlongs · Dirt · Post 3:40 · 8 starters Medium
  1. 7 ArganBeschizza A · Camejo Jose M 37%win est.
  2. 2 Jet PackMurrill M · Manley Steve 16%win est.
  3. 8 Talkin in CursiveTorres J A · Shirer Matt A 16%win est.

Why Argan: Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Quickest early horse in a dirt sprint.

Pace: Argan and Talkin in Cursive figure to go after the lead together. A stalker like Jet Pack could be the one to benefit.

Race7 Md Sp Wt 85k7 furlongs · Dirt · Post 4:12 · 12 starters Medium
  1. 12 FumedGaffalione T · Delacour Arnaud 28%win est.
  2. 2 Sweet VentureOrtiz I Jr · Kenneally Eddie 25%win est.
  3. 1 AmoarayPauly S · Knippenberg Brian 9%win est.

Why Fumed: Among the fastest on recent figures. Figures moving forward.

Value play1 Amoaray 9% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Pedigree suits the distance.

Pace: Pardi Vida and Fumed figure to go after the lead together. A stalker like Sweet Venture could be the one to benefit.

Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Maddie Josephine, Dagny Taggart, Riding the Pine

Race8 Alw 120000N1X5 ½ furlongs · Turf · Post 4:44 · 12 starters Medium
  1. 7 Red SquareOrtiz J L · Ward Wesley A 38%win est.
  2. 4 Beautiful WarGaffalione T · Fawkes David 18%win est.
  3. 12 Gypsy ArtOrtiz I Jr · Ward Wesley A 10%win est.

Why Red Square: Among the fastest on recent figures. Figures have risen three straight races.

Value play3 Expressway 9% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Figures moving forward. Barn does well with sprinters. Returns from a layoff.

Pace: No confirmed front-runner here, so Assertiveness may be the one sent to the front.

Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Pelican Hill, Cinister Cix, Bluegrass Town, Mischievous Richie

Race9 Clm 250006 ½ furlongs · Dirt · Post 5:16 · 11 starters Medium
  1. 8 Little NiLoveberry J · Rivelli Larry 31%win est.
  2. 7 Towner TooTorres J A · Robertson McLean 13%win est.
  3. 2 TagliatelleTorres C A · Diodoro Robertino 12%win est.

Why Little Ni: Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Barn does well with claimers.

Value play7 Towner Too 13% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Figures moving forward. Barn does well with claimers.

Pace: No confirmed front-runner here, so Shadow Coast may be the one sent to the front.

Race10 Md Sp Wt 110k1 1/16 miles · Turf · Post 5:48 · 11 starters Low
  1. 2 ComprehensiveCurtis B · Lynch Brian A 18%win est.
  2. 8 Tend to YouTorres J A · Harty Eoin 14%win est.
  3. 4 PuteketekeGaffalione T · Maker Michael J 13%win est.

Why Comprehensive: Barn does well with turf runners.

Value play10 Provider 12% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Proven on the surface. Returns from a layoff.

Pace: No confirmed front-runner here, so Comprehensive may be the one sent to the front. On turf at this distance, late kick usually matters more than early position. With 3 first-time starters or runners without recent figures, treat this race with extra caution.

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Updated Oct 14, 2026