Keeneland Picks Sat, Oct 17

1. 8 Trouble TimeGaffalione T · Vaccarezza Nicholas 25%win est.
2. 5 Hodl HardSaez L · Sharp Joe 19%win est.
3. 7 L RankinEspinoza A · Bryner Raymond C 14%win est.

Why Trouble Time: Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Figures have risen three straight races.

Value play7 L Rankin 14% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Among the fastest on recent figures. Figures have risen three straight races.

Pace: Hodl Hard and Our Standard figure to go after the lead together. A stalker like L Rankin could be the one to benefit.

1. 4 ArdennesJimenez A · Kordenbrock Matt 19%win est.
2. 12 Sailor's DreamVelazquez J R · Ward Wesley A 17%win est.
3. 1 Ginger MoneyLoveberry J · Forster Grant T 12%win est.

Why Ardennes: Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Pedigree suits the distance.

Value play1 Ginger Money 12% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Quickest early horse in a dirt sprint.

Pace: Ginger Money and Sailor's Dream figure to go after the lead together. A stalker like Ardennes could be the one to benefit. With 3 first-time starters or runners without recent figures, treat this race with extra caution.

Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Mussume, J Z's Not Again, Saffron Rouge, Capability

1. 9 Halfway JokingGaffalione T · Jacobson David 22%win est.
2. 3 King ApolloGraham J · Hess R B Jr 18%win est.
3. 7 Dancin for GoldTorres C A · Eoff Terry 14%win est.

Why Halfway Joking: Figures moving forward. Quickest early horse in a dirt sprint.

Pace: Halfway Joking and Swirvin figure to go after the lead together. A stalker like Dancin for Gold could be the one to benefit.

1. 9 Sucker for LooksVelazquez J R · Robson Lauren 29%win est.
2. 1 Toco DancerHernandez B J Jr · Lynch Brian A 13%win est.
3. 3 Candy PancakesOrtiz I Jr · Cox Brad H 12%win est.

Why Sucker for Looks: Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Pedigree suits the distance.

Pace: American Destiny shows the most early speed, but others can keep it honest. On turf at this distance, late kick usually matters more than early position.

Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Emma's Justice, Majorbrowniepoints, Breezy, Speak for Yourself

1. 3 Creole ChromeGaffalione T · Sharp Joe 27%win est.
2. 10 Ship Ship HoorayCarrasco V R · Shaffer Sarah E 16%win est.
3. 5 Classic TimeSaez L · Casse Norm W 15%win est.

Why Creole Chrome: Among the fastest on recent figures. Figures moving forward.

Value play10 Ship Ship Hooray 16% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Figures moving forward.

Pace: Track Phantom and Ship Ship Hooray figure to go after the lead together. A stalker like Raymond could be the one to benefit.

1. 3 DecimationSaez L · Asmussen Steven M 17%win est.
2. 5 Start the PartyPrat F · Ward Wesley A 9%win est.
3. 11 CapitolaOrtiz I Jr · Cox Brad H 9%win est.

Why Decimation: Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Looks like the lone early speed and can control the pace. Returns from a layoff.

Pace: Decimation looks like the lone speed and could control this on an easy lead. That is a dangerous setup on dirt. With 11 first-time starters or runners without recent figures, treat this race with extra caution.

Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Midnight Max, Just Plain Eugene, Epic Journey, Twillo

1. 3 Hear the QueenOrtiz I Jr · Cox Brad H 19%win est.
2. 1 Caviar BreakfastEsquivel E · McPeek Kenneth G 16%win est.
3. 10 Bojaca BlessingSaez L · D'Angelo Jose F 15%win est.

Why Hear the Queen: Among the fastest on recent figures. Top-percentage trainer and jockey.

Value play10 Bojaca Blessing 15% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Takes a drop in class.

Pace: No confirmed front-runner here, so She's Lookin Lucky may be the one sent to the front. On turf at this distance, late kick usually matters more than early position.

1. 11 Movie NightPrat F · Walden William 22%win est.
2. 8 ConceitOrtiz I Jr · Cox Brad H 22%win est.
3. 9 MashallahGaffalione T · Walsh Brendan P 18%win est.

Why Movie Night: Figures moving forward. Top-percentage trainer and jockey.

Pace: Plenty of early speed with Movie Night, Mashallah and With a Kiss, so the pace should be contested. That sets up for a closer such as Star Actress.

1. 3 Twirling ClaireSaez L · Foley Gregory D 24%win est.
2. 6 Ms. Jay Dee EmOrtiz J L · Maker Michael J 12%win est.
3. 11 Shirley AnnMendoza A · Vesty Clarke 12%win est.

Why Twirling Claire: Fastest recent speed figures in the field. Figures moving forward.

Value play6 Ms. Jay Dee Em 12% win est.
Went off at long odds last time out but rates as a real contender here. Figures moving forward. Pedigree suits the distance.

Pace: Plenty of early speed with Elite, Windy Houston and Petronella, so the pace should be contested. That sets up for a closer such as Mechaya.

Also eligible, runs only if there are scratches: Solemn Vow, She Wants War, Balright, Lady Revenge